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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."